This integrated science plan provides a framework for organizing the process for providing the scientific tools and knowledge needed by managers and policy makers to restore the South Florida ecosystem from the Kissimmee Lakes through the Florida Keys and reef tract. The strategy requires a cooperative network through which collective efforts are focused, results are timely, and information is shared among institutions and individuals. Adequate scientific information must be available in time to guide decisions at a series of critical stages in the redesign of the Central and Southern Florida Project. The term "science" in this plan includes the natural and social sciences, both of which must play an integral role in the development of a sustainable restoration plan.

Scientists have two major roles in the restoration process. One is to facilitate and promote the application of existing scientific information to planning and decision making. The other is to acquire critical missing information that can improve the probability that restoration objectives will be met. Scientists must provide immediate responses that use the best scientific knowledge currently available to plan and evaluate restoration actions. Simultaneously, scientists must facilitate well-focused investigations that improve the available scientific knowledge. It is critical that scientists actively engage in the restoration process while, at the same time, they build the knowledge that can be used to guide the process. Decisions are being made continuously in the multi-year process of project design and implementation. Immediately and in the longer time frame of the restoration effort, a scientific basis for these decisions is the key to restoration success. This science plan is an organizing framework to facilitate the two major roles.

The functional ecology of the pre-drainage natural system is the theoretical target for restoration. The pre-drainage system supported the landscape patterns, clean and abundant water supplies, and large populations of wading birds, fish, and other wildlife that are essential components of a restored South Florida Ecosystem. Using quantitative estimates of pre-drainage hydrologic conditions as theoretical targets for remaining natural areas will ensure that changes brought about by restoration efforts are in the right direction. This approach does not favor one species or community over another, but, rather, the mix of species that occurred here naturally. It may not be possible to entirely regain the original species richness and wildlife abundance of South Florida due to irreversible changes that took place with the expansion of the modern human population. Rather, the object is to recapture the defining characteristics of the Everglades and other South Florida ecosystems.

Hydrologic restoration is viewed as the prerequisite to ecosystem restoration, and it is the working hypothesis of the South Florida ecosystem restoration effort that, once hydrologic restoration is achieved, ecological restoration will follow, providing water quality is improved and maintained. For this reason, the C&SF Project is the keystone undertaking of the restoration process. Other measures, in addition to hydrologic restoration, may be necessary once progress is made on restoring a more ecologically beneficial hydrologic regime.

In reality, irreversible changes in the spatial extent and ecological conditions in the remaining natural wetlands in south Florida mean that complete restoration is not possible. The south Florida ecosystem restoration program will shift the currently degraded system substantially in the direction of the pre-drainage system. How far the remaining natural system shifts towards a fully restored system will depend on a continuing ecological research program, the implementation of a regionally comprehensive monitoring program, and an adaptive assessment form of project evaluations.

The following system-wide objectives for the South Florida Ecosystem Restoration were recommended in a 1993 Science Subgroup Report. To provide the scientific basis for these and more detailed, regional scale, objectives is the purpose of the Integrated Science Plan.

Restore water quality by reducing nutrients and contaminants
Restore pre-drainage relationships between rainfall and hydropatterns.
Restore timing and volume of freshwater flow through the system and into estuaries.
Restore natural sheet flow, reduce compartmentalization, and restore inter-regional linkages.
Restore dynamic water storage capacity.
Reduce habitat fragmentation and restore ecological connections.
Reestablish sustainable locally-breeding wildlife populations.
Recover endangered and threatened species.
Halt/reverse expansion of invasive non-native plant species.
Halt/reverse expansion of invasive nutrient-loving native plant species.
Increase spatial extent of wetlands.
Increase natural biological diversity and landscape heterogeneity.
Restore native vegetation communities, replacing lost communities.
Restore natural periphyton communities.
Restore coral cover.
Restore biological productivity of wetlands, estuaries, reefs, and fisheries.
Restore self-maintaining properties of natural and human systems.
Increase the beneficial linkages of agricultural, urban, and natural ecosystems.

The issues associated with restoration of South Florida's natural systems are so large in scale and geographically, ecologically, and socio-economically complex that a broadly integrated planning and coordinating process is needed to address them.

Natural and social scientists must pursue innovative approaches that will concurrently strengthen both human and environmental goals, rather than force choices from among the interest groups. With so many issues, scientific disciplines, and stakeholders involved, a detailed science plan is required.

This Integrated Science Plan is based on the view that restoration goals can best be met when a multi-disciplinary and multi-agency approach is used to identify and resolve the complex technical issues. The scientific community will make its strongest contributions by employing inclusive processes to create consensus positions on the major issues. The Science Coordination Team has the lead responsibility for encouraging and coordinating this integration of scientific effort.

The Integrated Science Plan describes the primary processes and products which support the two major goals of science: (1) the acquisition of new information required to fill gaps in scientific knowledge critical to meeting the restoration goals, and (2) the creation of real-time processes by which scientists support managers and policy-makers in planning and evaluating restoration programs. The ISP addresses these two roles under the headings "Science Program" and "Science Application".

The Working Group has established a new structure to facilitate the interaction of scientists and managers in planning and evaluating projects related to the restoration. This structure is diagrammed in Figure 1.

Project Management Teams. The majority view of scientists is that this PMT structure is not very effective for coordinating science.The Working Group has delineated six regions and established a Project Management Team (PCT) for each region, as well as a Total System Project Management Team. The task of each PCT is to coordinate the restoration activities of its region. The Total System PCT must coordinate restoration activities that cut across several regions or apply to all or most of South Florida. Scientists have been assigned to each PCT. For each PCT, one scientist has been selected to represent the region on a Science Coordination Team.

Science Coordination Team. A Science Coordination Team (SCT) has been established by the Working Group to provide integration and coordination of the interagency science program and science applications. The Science Coordination Team (SCT) is made up of seven members of the Working Group, one scientist from each PCT, and one scientist from each agency in the Working Group desiring to have representation on the SCT and not represented by a Working Group member on the SCT.

Special Topic Science Groups. Appropriate member of the Science Coordination Team should organize a standing group of scientific experts on special topics such as social science and ecological modeling to ensure that the SCT has the in-depth knowledge base for its planning and coordination responsibilities.

Scientific Review Panels. A set of Independent Scientific Review Panels will be established by the Science Coordination Team to review Strategic Science Plans and the science programs that become implemented. In reviewing the Plans, these standing panels will be asked to evaluate the appropriateness of the critical questions, the adequacy of the research design in addressing those questions, and the scientific merit of the approaches. Panel members to review strategic plans for a given region will be selected for their general knowledge of ecosystems specific to that region and processes most relevant to restoration in that area.

Development of New Information

The Science Coordination Team has responsibility for development of a framework science plan and for overseeing the development of a strategic science plan for each region and the total system. Each PCT Science Representative is requested to establish a team of scientists to develop a plan. Each regional plan should take into account the characteristic ecosystems and the restoration projects underway, or under discussion. The plan should identify issues, formulate critical scientific questions related to these issues, and focus on a research program addressing these questions. Strategic Science Plans should include modeling, monitoring, and empirical studies. They should include and integrate ongoing science projects that address the critical scientific questions. Emphasis of new work should be on filling information gaps. The region's PCT should be kept informed on the progress of the developing plan and its content and have the opportunity to make suggestions. Each Strategic Science Plan will be submitted to the Science Coordination Team through its respective PCT.

Communication

The SCT will work to promote improved communication among scientists involved in the restoration program. Multidisciplinary science conferences will be organized to present ongoing research. Workshops will be used to focus an exchange of information and ideas on specific technical issues.

Synthesis of Scientific Knowledge Relevant to Issues

Major scientific issues will be addressed by means of in-depth syntheses of existing scientific knowledge. Both the SCT and regional science teams will identify, and respond to, needs for in-depth synthesis of existing scientific knowledge. Papers will be developed that synthesize existing scientific knowledge relevant to major restoration issues. These papers may be organized into a book that provides the current state of knowledge about South Florida ecosystems and approaches to their restoration.

Integrated Data Management

Inventories will be conducted, and available databases will be archived in a multi-governmental data base management system accessible through Internet. The system will be updated routinely. A guide to the information available from each database will be developed.

Scientific knowledge and know-how is being applied directly to the restoration effort by the involvement of scientists in several major activities: (1) an applied science strategy and (2) a multi-species recovery plan.

The applied science strategy is being developed to help plan and evaluate restoration projects. Its initial application is in the selection of alternative redesigns of the South Florida water management system. The multi-species management plan is being developed to ensure that the future of each threatened and endangered species is evaluated in the context of the future quantity and quality of its habitat.

Applied Science Strategy

A science-based strategic process has been designed to provide a comprehensive framework for organizing existing scientific knowledge about the natural systems in South Florida into formats which are most applicable to the planning, implementation and evaluation of restoration projects at local and regional scales (Fig. 2).

The Applied Science Strategy includes three major steps, (1) the development of the conceptual models, (2) development of performance measures for key stressors and attributes identified by the models, and (3) the design of a comprehensive monitoring program based on the attributes and performance measures (Figure 3). Each step depends on the creation of scientific consensus, achieved through a series of technical workshops organized across multi-agency and multi-disciplinary lines. The first workshops identify the components of the conceptual models and the appropriate linkages in the models. In subsequent workshops, the performance measures are developed and the comprehensive monitoring program is designed. The simulation models developed in the science program will be applied in this process, as they become available.

Conceptual Models

The core of this process is a set of conceptual ecological models that propose the major causal relationships in the stressed ecosystems of south Florida. The conceptual models identify the societal drivers, resulting ecological stressors, and their effects on ecological systems. Each model identifies the principal ecological attributes (e.g., endpoints, and indicators) that characterize the "health" of each landscape/system and reflect the important ecological and societal values of the system.

The ultimate intent of the conceptual models is to (1) convert the broad, policy-level objectives that have been established for each restoration program into specific, measurable ecological indicators and (2) develop a suite of testable hypotheses that describe the major ecological responses to the restoration projects. These hypotheses become the basis for the restoration plans by identifying the ecological and physical modifications of the system that are necessary to achieve the restoration objectives. The conceptual models identify the major stressors and ecological attributes (e.g., indicators) that should best characterize how the system will respond to specific restoration actions. Hydrologic and biologic performance measures and a comprehensive ecological monitoring program will be based on the relationships expressed in these conceptual models.

As restoration programs are planned and implemented, simulation models and a well-focused monitoring program will show how the key attributes in each system respond relative to the performance measures. The simulation modeling and the monitoring provide an objective means of testing the validity of the conceptual models and hypotheses, reducing scientific uncertainty, identifying new research priorities, and modifying restoration actions (i.e., adaptive assessment).

Performance Measures

Developing performance measures is a high priority task in the restoration program. This task requires that a set of biological and physical parameters be identified which, collectively, can represent the response of the system to restoration efforts over a range of spatial, temporal, and ecological scales. These performance measures are being used initially to evaluate simulation-modeling output produced to test proposed alternative redesigns of the water management system. Later, these performance measures will be monitored to evaluate how well specific parts of the project, once implemented, are meeting restoration objectives.

Several important efforts provided the initial information with which to develop performance measures. The former Science Sub-Group presented an initial set of suggested ecological and precurser (mainly hydrologic) success measures (Science Sub-Group 1997). Other hydrologic performance measures were developed to evaluate recent water management projects of the South Florida Water Management District that had ecological objectives. Ecological performance measures also have been proposed by the Man in the Biosphere Program (Harwell and Long 1992) and the National Audubon Society (Hoffman 1994).

The suite of conceptual ecological models recently created for the natural systems in South Florida provided a basis for identifying a set of restoration performance measures to evaluate various proposed restoration alternatives. The rationale was that restoration projects ought to be directed at correcting the stresses identified by the conceptual models because these models provide a consensus of scientific opinion regarding the major ecological components and causal links that characterize stressed natural systems in South Florida. In both the alternative evaluation process and follow-up monitoring of projects that are implemented, a set of performance measures that are linked to model components should provide a well founded indication of how well a restoration project meets its objectives.

The initial effort to use the conceptual models as a basis for refining the set of performance measures is focused on establishing 1st and 2nd order hydrological performance measures for the restoration projects. 1st order hydrological performance measures are derived from the hydrological stressors in the models. 1st order performance measures identify the specific hydrological conditions which, as suggested by the models, explain much of the ecological effects from altered water patterns and quality in south Florida. Because 1st order performance measures are derived from the stressor level in the models, they may use Natural Systems Model output as their default target (i.e., the difference between the current hydrological pattern and the pattern predicted by the NSM defines the source of the stress on the system).

2nd order hydrological performance measures are derived from the current, best understanding of the hydrological optima for each of the ecological attributes, which, in the models, link to one or more hydrological stressors. Although 2nd order performance measures are developed independently of NSM predictions, it is assumed that if the understanding of the hydrological requirements of the attributes is correct, those 2nd order hydrological performance measures should be consistent with NSM hydrological patterns.

Biological performance measures also are developed for each of the attributes in the models. In any conceptual model, these attributes will include the combination of populations, species, guilds, communities, and ecological functions which, collectively, will represent how that system responds to restoration projects. Biological performance measures should identify, for each attribute, the numerical, spatial, temporal, or organizational targets to be used to determine the success of restoration projects.

Comprehensive Ecological Monitoring Program

The Science Coordination Team will take the lead in coordinating the development and implementation of a regional, comprehensive monitoring program for the restoration projects. A comprehensive monitoring program is defined as one, (1) which uses a regionally standardized set of monitoring protocols, and, (2) which is designed to establish base-line and trend data for a common set of ecological parameters, at regional or system-wide spatial scales, and over time periods that are consistent with the temporal scales of restoration projects and ecological cycles. Additionally, such a monitoring program becomes comprehensive when it measures responses by the full set of hydrological and biological performance measures established for the restoration projects.

The comprehensive monitoring program will build on current hydrological and ecological monitoring programs being conducted by federal and state agencies in south Florida. Existing programs will be reviewed for compatibility of protocols, completeness of spatial and temporal coverage's, and the adequacy of the current programs relative to the proposed set of performance measures. An integration of the current monitoring programs likely will reveal the need to initiate new monitoring projects, expand some existing projects, and terminate lower priority projects. By focusing the new monitoring program on the performance measures for the restoration projects, the observed responses are expected to much better reflect the affects that these projects have on the systems.

One of the most challenging aspects of the ecosystem restoration program for South Florida, and one of the most important science application issues, is the question of how to protect and enhance the status of over 60 federal and state listed species, while making major alterations to regional hydropatterns in order to achieve landscape scale recovery of natural systems. Population declines in most listed species are thought to have occurred due to loss or degradation of essential habitat. Some listed species have changed their range and habitat substantially in order to compensate for effects that urban, agriculture and water management practices have had on their original habitat. Responding to changes in water depth and distribution patterns, these species have come to depend on different areas of the managed system than they used in the natural system. Although the overall expectation is that system restoration will improve habitat conditions for all listed species, the restoration implementation period may create short term stresses on those species that may have to relocate again to adjust to restored hydropatterns.

As a means for anticipating, and planning for, the potential responses by listed species in the overall ecosystem restoration program, the Fish and Wildlife Service is leading the development of an integrated, comprehensive, multi-species recovery plan for the entire Kissimmee to Florida Bay basin. Overall, the multi-species plan will identify the strategies and thresholds which will best protect listed species in south Florida as we move forward with regional, ecosystem restoration programs. The plan will contain two sections. Part I will consist of species accounts for all listed species, describing biology and status and establishing the recovery goals and environmental compliance guidelines for each species. Part II will relate the habitat requirements of the listed species to the landscape characteristics of South Florida, identify specific land management actions necessary to recover listed species, identify jeopardy thresholds, and propose multi-species recovery strategies in the context of long-term objectives.